11 Aug Bitfinex Alpha | Macro Determining BTC Price

Bitcoin rebounded from the $112,000 lows, reclaiming the $115,800 range floor, after ETF outflows early in August reversed sharply into $769 million of net inflows over three sessions. This recovery, alongside steady accumulation by crypto treasury firms now holding nearly $90 billion in digital assets, has restored short-term confidence, price has broken past range highs near $119,500, but it remains to be seen if this breakout over resistance sustains. The price is oscillating around the short-term holder cost basis of $106,709, keeping conditions “warm but not overheated” and consistent with mid-cycle bull phases.

With 70 percent of short-term holder supply still in profit and profit-taking activity cooling to 45 percent, the market is balanced but highly sensitive to macro catalysts, meaning key US inflation data this week could decide whether BTC pushes for new all-time highs or slips back toward $110,000.

After months of calm in financial markets, a confluence of shifting trade policies, evolving bond market dynamics, and softening economic data is setting the stage for a more volatile close to the year. Pending US tariffs threaten to raise costs, disrupt supply chains, and pressure employment, while the bond market’s rising term premium — now at 0.65 percent — signals heightened uncertainty over future Fed policy, especially if inflation accelerates post-tariffs. Manufacturing orders fell 4.8 percent in June, underscoring uneven demand and the challenges businesses face in securing goods ahead of holiday season disruptions.

The labour market is also cooling, with job growth slowing, significant downward revisions to prior employment data, and services sector activity stagnating just above contraction levels. Rising service-sector input costs add inflationary pressure, yet improving worker productivity — up 2.4 percent in Q2 — offers a crucial buffer, suggesting that technology-driven efficiency gains may help sustain growth in a softer hiring environment.

In the crypto space, BitMine Immersion Technologies has rapidly built the world’s largest Ethereum treasury, amassing over 833,000 ETH worth $2.9 billion in just five weeks, positioning itself as a major institutional player alongside backers such as ARK, Pantera, and Galaxy Digital. Policy shifts under President Trump are also reshaping the industry’s landscape. A recent executive order opens the door for 401(k) and other retirement plans to include alternative assets, including digital assets, potentially driving mainstream adoption. Another order prohibits politicised debanking, explicitly protecting crypto firms’ access to banking services and dismantling barriers erected under previous regulatory regimes.